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Across 8 modules • Updated Jul 24, 2026
Author
Sorena AI
Published
May 9, 2026
Updated
Jul 24, 2026
ISO/IEC 27005 Asset and Scenario Modeling

How should teams model assets and scenarios under ISO/IEC 27005 risk assessments?

ISO/IEC 27005:2022 recognizes two common starting points. The event-based approach identifies strategic scenarios by considering risk sources, events, interested parties, and consequences. It can reach a useful high-level view without first cataloguing every asset. The asset-based approach inspects primary and supporting assets, threats, and vulnerabilities to build detailed operational scenarios and identify asset-specific treatment.

The approaches differ mainly in where analysis starts. Event-based work often drills down from business exposure to contributing assets; asset-based work often builds up from assets to accumulated business consequences. Use either or both, but describe each scenario as a sequence or combination of events leading from an initial cause to an unwanted consequence.

ISO/IEC 27005 is guidance supporting ISO/IEC 27001. It does not require an event-based or asset-based format, complete inventory of every possible asset-threat-vulnerability combination, named threat-modeling technique, or universal scenario template. Another identification approach is acceptable when it produces consistent, valid, and comparable results.

  • Identify the affected confidentiality, integrity, or availability objective and the business asset or process that carries the consequence.
  • Map primary assets, such as information or business processes, to supporting assets, such as people, systems, networks, sites, and services; a server matters here because of the information or process it supports.
  • Describe the path from initial cause through relevant events and control conditions to the unwanted business consequence; record assumptions and uncertainty where the path is incomplete.
  • Keep hazards or attack paths separate when they need different controls, even if they are combined later for reporting.
Citations
ISO/IEC 27005:2022 standard page

ISO/IEC 27005:2022 Clause 7.2.1 and Annex A explain event-based and asset-based identification, their different starting points, and their use together.

ISO/IEC 27005 Asset and Scenario Modeling

What evidence should support the asset and scenario modeling decision?

A useful scenario record shows the scope and purpose, affected objectives, initial cause, risk source, events, consequence, relevant assets, threats, vulnerabilities, existing controls, and dependencies. It should also identify the evidence and assumptions used to estimate consequence and likelihood.

For asset-based work, document dependencies between primary and supporting assets so the same propagated risk is not assessed twice. For event-based work, show how the risk source can use the organization's ecosystem or business processes to reach the affected business asset.

For example, flooding, fire, power spikes, and vandalism can all affect one data centre. They may be aggregated for an enterprise exposure view, but ISO/IEC 27005 says they should remain separate for treatment when each hazard needs different controls. Likewise, a personal-data loss can be a specific instance of a broader data-loss scenario when its consequences and controls differ.

  • Use architecture and data-flow records, asset inventories, process maps, supplier information, incident history, threat information, vulnerability findings, and control tests that match the scenario.
  • Record where a path depends on another event; dependent events should not be treated as independent probabilities.
  • State why scenarios were split, combined, or excluded and which control applies to each retained scenario.
Citations
ISO/IEC 27005:2022 standard page

ISO/IEC 27005:2022 Clause 7.2.1 and Annex A.2 connect scenarios to assets, events, threats, vulnerabilities, dependencies, consequences, and controls.

ISO/IEC 27005 Asset and Scenario Modeling

Who owns and approves asset and scenario modeling decisions?

Assign each identified risk to a risk owner who can understand the business consequence and direct or escalate treatment. Analysts, architects, asset owners, process owners, suppliers, and control specialists can build the scenario, but contributing evidence does not by itself make them the risk owner. The owner must have both accountability and authority and should be assigned during the assessment, not after a treatment decision is already drafted.

  • Name the business or process owner who validates the consequence and the technical owners who validate assets, vulnerabilities, and controls.
  • Assign treatment actions to people who control the affected assets or processes, while keeping risk acceptance with the authorized risk owner.
  • Escalate when one scenario crosses business units or when no single owner has authority over the full exposure.
Citations
ISO/IEC 27005:2022 standard page

ISO/IEC 27005:2022 Clauses 7.2.1 and 7.2.2 explain how interviews support scenario development and say identified risks should be associated with accountable, authorized risk owners.

ISO/IEC 27005 Asset and Scenario Modeling

When should asset and scenario modeling be reviewed?

Review a scenario when its path, evidence, or consequence can change. Strategic review addresses changes in objectives, business assets, risk sources, interested parties, or the wider ecosystem. Operational review updates assets, threats, vulnerabilities, dependencies, control effectiveness, and treatment. ISO/IEC 27005 sets no universal annual deadline; use planned intervals appropriate to the ISMS and additional review when significant changes are proposed or occur.

  • Trigger review after a system or process redesign, supplier change, new attack path, significant vulnerability, incident, unexpected control test, or asset-owner change.
  • Recheck asset dependencies after migrations, outsourcing, acquisitions, or shared-service changes.
  • Record whether the change creates a new scenario, changes likelihood or consequence, requires different controls, changes the risk owner, or invalidates a previous acceptance decision.
Citations
ISO/IEC 27005:2022 standard page

ISO/IEC 27005:2022 Clauses 5.2, 9.1, and 10.5.2 support strategic, operational, planned, and change-driven review of scenarios and treatment.

ISO/IEC 27005 Impact

How should teams approach impact under ISO/IEC 27005?

ISO/IEC 27005 defines consequence as the outcome of an event affecting objectives. Consequences can be certain or uncertain, direct or indirect, positive or negative, qualitative or quantitative, and can escalate through cascading or cumulative effects. Information security analysis normally focuses on negative effects from a failure to preserve confidentiality, integrity, or availability.

Describe what happens to the affected business process or objective if the scenario occurs. Estimate lost time or data, disruption, severity, and recovery cost. Add legal, regulatory, contractual, safety, financial, customer, supplier, or reputational effects only when they are relevant to the defined context and supported by evidence.

  • Use defined consequence categories with observable anchors, such as downtime, records affected, financial loss, recovery effort, or safety effect.
  • State how multiple consequence types are combined and how the method handles a rare extreme consequence.
  • Keep vulnerability severity separate: a technically severe weakness can have limited business consequence in one context and serious consequence in another.
  • Example: loss of confidentiality in a personal-data scenario can cause information loss and privacy harm, then create a separate legal or regulatory consequence. Rate the supported consequence chain, not the vulnerability label.
  • Example: for a monetary scale, the organization's tolerable annual write-off and a loss that would threaten its survival can anchor the lower and upper ends. Intermediate bands should fit its context; ISO/IEC 27005 does not prescribe universal amounts.

What does impact mean in an ISO/IEC 27005 risk assessment?

ISO/IEC 27005 uses the term consequence for the outcome of an event affecting objectives. On this page, impact means that consequence, not a vulnerability's technical severity. Start with the relevant loss of confidentiality, integrity, or availability, trace the direct, indirect, cascading, and cumulative effects on the defined business objectives, then apply the organization's approved consequence criteria.

Does ISO/IEC 27005 prescribe a universal impact scale?

No. ISO/IEC 27005:2022 allows qualitative or quantitative consequence criteria and says the categories should fit the organization's internal and external context. Define the categories and their observable anchors clearly. Where different domains use different units, it is useful to cross-reference them to a common anchoring scale so equivalent consequences can be compared.

Should a CVSS or vulnerability severity score determine impact?

No. A vulnerability score can inform the scenario, but impact depends on the consequence to objectives in the assessed context. The same weakness can have limited consequence in an isolated test service and severe consequence in a safety-critical or regulated production process.

Citations
ISO/IEC 27005:2022 standard page

ISO/IEC 27005:2022 definitions and Clause 7.3.2 support consequence analysis against objectives, including confidentiality, integrity, availability, operational loss, severity, and recovery cost.

ISO/IEC 27005 Impact

What evidence should support the impact decision?

Keep the scenario, affected objectives and assets, consequence chain, existing controls, units or scale, evidence, assumptions, uncertainty, rating rationale, and risk-owner input together. The record should explain why the chosen category fits the evidence rather than showing only a number.

  • Use business impact analyses, service targets, incident and loss data, data-classification records, contracts, regulatory requirements, recovery tests, supplier dependencies, and cost estimates that match the scenario.
  • Distinguish the immediate information security effect from later business effects and identify any dependency that can amplify the loss.
  • If evidence supports a range, record the range and the rule used to select a rating instead of presenting false precision.
Citations
ISO/IEC 27005:2022 standard page

ISO/IEC 27005:2022 Clause 7.3.2 identifies the scenario, affected objectives, consequence criteria, existing-control status, operational loss, severity, and recovery cost as inputs to consequence assessment.

ISO/IEC 27005 Impact

Who owns and approves impact decisions?

The risk owner should validate the consequence to business objectives. Process owners, data owners, service owners, finance, legal, safety, privacy, resilience, and technical specialists can supply evidence for the consequence categories they understand. Their input does not replace the risk owner's accountable decision.

  • Identify who owns each affected objective and who can validate cost, downtime, legal, contractual, or safety assumptions.
  • Escalate consequences that cross business units or exceed the risk owner's delegated authority.
  • Record material disagreement or uncertainty when contributors cannot support one consequence estimate.
Citations
ISO/IEC 27005:2022 standard page

ISO/IEC 27005:2022 Clauses 7.2.2 and 7.3.2 assign risks to accountable owners and note that the risk owner typically estimates consequence with relevant inputs.

ISO/IEC 27005 Impact

When should impact be reviewed?

Review impact when the affected objective, business process, asset value, consequence criteria, dependency, or recovery capability changes. A new vulnerability does not automatically change impact, but it can reveal a different scenario or consequence path that needs assessment.

  • Trigger review after material business or system change, revised legal or contractual duties, new loss data, an incident, recovery-test results, or a change in consequence units.
  • Reassess cascading effects when suppliers, shared services, locations, or data flows change.
  • Record the previous and new consequence rationale and whether treatment priorities or acceptance changed.
Citations
ISO/IEC 27005:2022 standard page

ISO/IEC 27005:2022 Clauses 7.3.2 and 10.5.2 identify changed scope, context, consequence units, asset values, and other risk factors as reasons to reassess consequences.

ISO/IEC 27005 Inherent vs Residual Risk

How should teams distinguish inherent risk from residual risk under ISO/IEC 27005?

ISO/IEC 27005:2022 describes inherent risk as the level without considering any controls and current risk as the level allowing for the effectiveness of controls already implemented. It defines residual risk as risk remaining after treatment. These are different assessment bases, so label the basis and control assumptions on every rating.

A no-controls inherent baseline can be useful for prioritization or comparing gross exposure, but it can be unrealistic for a process that has never operated without embedded controls. Current risk is often the more decision-useful starting point for information security treatment. After selecting or implementing treatment, reassess likelihood and consequence with the proposed controls and their effectiveness to determine residual risk.

  • Use the same scenario, scope, time horizon, consequence and likelihood criteria, and units when comparing stages.
  • List the controls excluded from inherent risk, credited in current risk, and proposed or implemented for residual risk.
  • Do not claim risk reduction from a control merely because it exists; consider whether it is necessary, implemented, operating, and effective.
  • Example: an inherent assessment of laptop data disclosure excludes disk encryption and access controls. The current assessment credits only controls operating now. A planned encryption deployment supports an expected residual estimate; implementation and effectiveness evidence are needed before treating that estimate as verified.

What is the difference between inherent risk and residual risk in ISO/IEC 27005?

Inherent risk is the level assessed without considering any controls. Residual risk is what remains after treatment. Between them, current risk is today's exposure after crediting the effectiveness of controls already implemented. Keep the scenario, time horizon, criteria, and units constant and label which controls are excluded, credited, proposed, or verified.

Does ISO/IEC 27005 require an inherent-risk assessment?

No. ISO/IEC 27005:2022 recommends considering inherent risk or current risk depending on the situation and says information security methods most commonly use current risk. Use a no-controls baseline only when it supports the decision and its hypothetical assumptions can be explained.

Can planned controls be used to report residual risk?

Planned controls can support an expected residual-risk estimate for treatment planning. They do not support a verified post-treatment rating until the controls are implemented and evidence shows how effectively they modify likelihood or consequence. Label the estimate accordingly and perform the follow-up assessment.

Who accepts residual risk?

The risk owner decides whether residual risk is acceptable under the organization's approved acceptance criteria and delegated authority. If the remaining risk exceeds that authority or normal criteria, the decision should be escalated or explicitly justified and approved as the authority model requires.

Citations
ISO/IEC 27005:2022 standard page

ISO/IEC 27005:2022 Clauses 6.4.3.4 and 6.5 distinguish inherent and current risk; the residual-risk definition and Clause 8.6.3 explain risk remaining after treatment.

ISO/IEC 27005 Inherent vs Residual Risk

What evidence should support the inherent vs residual risk decision?

Keep the scenario, scope, criteria, time horizon, consequence and likelihood evidence, rating basis, included and excluded controls, control effectiveness, uncertainty, owner, date, and rationale together. For residual risk, add the approved treatment plan, follow-up assessment, acceptance decision, conditions, and review trigger.

  • For an inherent rating, explain how the no-controls state was estimated and where it is hypothetical.
  • For a current rating, identify existing controls and evidence of their actual effectiveness.
  • For a residual rating, distinguish proposed effectiveness from verified effectiveness and update the rating after implementation testing.
Citations
ISO/IEC 27005:2022 standard page

ISO/IEC 27005:2022 Clauses 6.5, 8.3, and 8.6.3 support documented methods, evidence-based control credit, and follow-up assessment of residual likelihood and consequence.

ISO/IEC 27005 Inherent vs Residual Risk

Who owns and approves inherent vs residual risk decisions?

Keep one accountable risk owner for the same risk across its inherent, current, and residual views unless the risk itself moves to a different organizational owner. Analysts can calculate the ratings and treatment owners can implement controls, but the risk owner approves the plan and decides whether residual risk is acceptable.

  • Name the method owner who defines the rating convention and the risk owner who makes the decision.
  • Assign control implementation and effectiveness evidence to treatment and control owners.
  • Escalate residual-risk acceptance when it exceeds the risk owner's delegated threshold or class.
Citations
ISO/IEC 27005:2022 standard page

ISO/IEC 27005:2022 Clauses 7.2.2 and 8.6 assign risk management, treatment-plan approval, and residual-risk acceptance to accountable risk owners.

ISO/IEC 27005 Inherent vs Residual Risk

When should inherent vs residual risk be reviewed?

Reassess the relevant view when the scenario, criteria, evidence, controls, or treatment changes. Inherent risk changes when the underlying no-controls scenario changes; current risk changes when the operating environment or existing-control effectiveness changes; residual risk changes as treatment is implemented, tested, changed, or fails.

  • Review after incidents, material changes, new threats or vulnerabilities, unexpected control tests, treatment delays, or changed acceptance criteria.
  • Do not carry a planned residual rating forward as though it were verified after implementation.
  • Record the previous basis, changed controls or evidence, new rating, and new acceptance or treatment decision.
Citations
ISO/IEC 27005:2022 standard page

ISO/IEC 27005:2022 Clauses 5.2, 8.6.3, and 10.8 support follow-up assessment and regular and change-driven review of risk, controls, treatment, and criteria.

ISO/IEC 27005 Likelihood

How should teams approach likelihood under ISO/IEC 27005?

Assess the likelihood of the identified scenario and its consequence with the organization's established criteria. ISO/IEC 27005 permits qualitative, quantitative, and semiquantitative analysis and does not require one universal probability scale or formula.

For deliberate threats, consider capability, motivation, resources, attractiveness, and the cost or benefit of the attack. For accidental or environmental sources, consider human factors, equipment failure, geography, and natural hazards. In every case, consider known weaknesses, compensating controls, and evidence of how effectively existing controls operate.

  • Anchor labels such as low or high to unambiguous ranges or reference points and a stated time period.
  • Use likelihood expressed in probabilistic terms when aggregating likelihoods; frequency-based terms can still be used for communication.
  • Model dependent events as a sequence; do not multiply or compare them as if each event were independent.
  • Example: for denial of service, assess the threat landscape and the server's accessibility and vulnerability. The fact that malicious packets are certain after an attack begins does not establish how likely the attack itself is.
  • Treat events outside the predictably manageable range as extreme cases when a more precise estimate would not change the decision.

What does likelihood mean in ISO/IEC 27005?

Likelihood is the chance of something happening. ISO/IEC 27005:2022 allows objective or subjective and qualitative or quantitative estimates, including probability or frequency over a stated period. Assess the defined risk scenario and consequence using the organization's established likelihood criteria, existing-control evidence, and an explicit statement of uncertainty.

Does ISO/IEC 27005 require a particular likelihood formula or scale?

No. The standard permits qualitative, semiquantitative, and quantitative analysis. The chosen scale should cover the relevant range, use unambiguous categories such as a frequency over a stated period, and support consistent, valid, and comparable results. Only likelihood expressed in probabilistic terms can be used when aggregating likelihoods.

How should dependent events affect a likelihood estimate?

Identify the dependency before combining estimates. A later event can become inevitable once an earlier event occurs, so assessing both as independent events can distort the result. Start with the independent contributory events, model the conditional sequence, and aggregate only with a method that matches those relationships.

Citations
ISO/IEC 27005:2022 standard page

ISO/IEC 27005:2022 defines likelihood broadly, and Clauses 7.3.1 and 7.3.3 explain qualitative, quantitative, and semiquantitative analysis, threat factors, controls, dependencies, and uncertainty.

ISO/IEC 27005 Likelihood

What evidence should support the likelihood decision?

Keep the scenario, time horizon, scale, evidence, existing controls and effectiveness, dependencies, assumptions, estimate, uncertainty, assessor, and review trigger together. A score without its time period and scale definition is not comparable.

  • Use relevant incident and near-miss history, threat intelligence, exposure data, vulnerability and exploit evidence, control tests, audit results, supplier evidence, and environmental or equipment data.
  • Separate personal uncertainty in judgment, methodological uncertainty in the model, and systemic uncertainty from limited knowledge of the event.
  • Use team assessment, external evidence, suitable scale resolution, and concrete anchors such as 'once a year' where they improve reliability.
Citations
ISO/IEC 27005:2022 standard page

ISO/IEC 27005:2022 Clause 7.3.3 identifies relevant evidence and the three main sources of uncertainty, and recommends team assessment, external sources, suitable scales, and unambiguous categories.

ISO/IEC 27005 Likelihood

Who owns and approves likelihood decisions?

The risk owner remains accountable for the risk decision. Analysts and specialists can estimate likelihood, while system owners, control owners, threat specialists, suppliers, and operational teams provide evidence about exposure, vulnerabilities, control effectiveness, and event frequency.

  • Record the assessor and reviewers so later teams can distinguish evidence from judgment.
  • Resolve material differences through a team assessment or record the range and uncertainty.
  • Escalate when a changed likelihood moves the risk beyond the owner's acceptance authority.
Citations
ISO/IEC 27005:2022 standard page

ISO/IEC 27005:2022 Clauses 7.2.2 and 7.3.3 support accountable risk ownership and team-based likelihood assessment where judgment differs.

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